Saturday, November 11, 2006
U.S. eyeing possible Iraq exit by 2008
U.S., Security, Politics
The United States won't rush to quit Iraq in the wake of Tuesday's mid-term elections, but it is possible Washington may soon adopt a new strategy of "phased troop withdrawals" leading to an exit before the 2008 presidential elections. Robert Gates, the former CIA director, who was selected on Wednesday to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defence, discussed just such a scenario 18 months ago during a seminar at the Panetta Institute at California State University in Monterey.
During a round-table discussion with Leon Panetta, chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton, and Sandy Berger, former national security advisor, Mr. Gates expressed his hope for a relatively rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops. "We all hope that it will be quick," he said. "That in a year or two, this government in Iraq will be secure enough that they will be able to invite us to leave and we can do so, leaving behind us a government that can survive and that will be very different from what preceded it."
But Mr. Gates qualified his comments, noting it sometimes takes time to accomplish your goals. Yesterday, during a speech in London, British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett warned against a precipitous withdrawal, saying there is a risk violence could escalate dramatically. "We are at a critical junction in which the fate of that country hangs in the balance," she said. "There is a very real risk of even greater instability and bloodshed than we've already seen."
In the meantime, hopes for a shift in U.S. policy hang on the bipartisan Iraq Study Group set up last year under the leadership of former U.S. secretary of state James Baker. Mr. Gates was an advisor to Mr. Baker's group and spent the last six months helping draw up recommendations that are expected to focus on some sort of phased withdrawal of U.S. troops, a regional peace conference with Iraq's neighbours, including Iran and Syria, and a form of federalism that carves Iraq up along sectarian lines.
During a round-table discussion with Leon Panetta, chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton, and Sandy Berger, former national security advisor, Mr. Gates expressed his hope for a relatively rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops. "We all hope that it will be quick," he said. "That in a year or two, this government in Iraq will be secure enough that they will be able to invite us to leave and we can do so, leaving behind us a government that can survive and that will be very different from what preceded it."
But Mr. Gates qualified his comments, noting it sometimes takes time to accomplish your goals. Yesterday, during a speech in London, British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett warned against a precipitous withdrawal, saying there is a risk violence could escalate dramatically. "We are at a critical junction in which the fate of that country hangs in the balance," she said. "There is a very real risk of even greater instability and bloodshed than we've already seen."
In the meantime, hopes for a shift in U.S. policy hang on the bipartisan Iraq Study Group set up last year under the leadership of former U.S. secretary of state James Baker. Mr. Gates was an advisor to Mr. Baker's group and spent the last six months helping draw up recommendations that are expected to focus on some sort of phased withdrawal of U.S. troops, a regional peace conference with Iraq's neighbours, including Iran and Syria, and a form of federalism that carves Iraq up along sectarian lines.
