Friday, December 01, 2006
Al-Sadr - Al-Dhari alliance rumoured
Politics
The next few weeks are "very crucial" for Iraq's seven-month-old government led by belligerent Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, who could soon be shunned by his own Shiite allies, diplomatic and political sources said on Thursday. Al Maliki, under pressure from the United States and Arab countries to stem the rising sectarian violence, yesterday received renewed support from US President George Bush during their breakfast meeting in Amman. But according to one diplomat, Al Maliki has been given "one last chance" by Bush to stop the chaos that threatens to tear Iraq apart.
The next few weeks are "very crucial" for Al Maliki because the Sunni-Shiite divide is widening, leading to an intensified sectarian attacks, following the recent arrest warrant against a leading anti-US Sunni politician Hareth Al Dhari, an aide to a senior Iraqi official said. Al Dhari, leader of the hardline Muslim Scholars Association (MSA), is being accused of inciting sectarianism and supporting and financing the Sunni-led insurgency. The case caused further resentment among Iraqi Sunnis who accused the Shiite-led Al Maliki government of bias.
Attacks against the US and Iraqi forces are also expected to "increase dramatically" if the newly-talked about alliance between the MSA and the movement of Shiite radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr movement is realised, the Iraqi aide told Gulf News on condition of anonymity. The 30-strong Sadr bloc has suspended its support of Al Maliki's ruling coalition and withdrawn six ministers from the cabinet in protest at his meeting with Bush. Al Sadr is "building an anti-US parliamentary alliance to demand the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq," one of his party's lawmakers told AFP on Thursday. But the Iraqi aide said talks have been "going on for a while" between Al Sadr and Al Dhari to "form a united front to force an American withdrawal and this is understandably very worrying for Al Maliki and Washington." It would be the first time the majority Shiites turn their guns off the Americans. "It is a scenario nobody really wants to think about," said the Iraqi aide.
The next few weeks are "very crucial" for Al Maliki because the Sunni-Shiite divide is widening, leading to an intensified sectarian attacks, following the recent arrest warrant against a leading anti-US Sunni politician Hareth Al Dhari, an aide to a senior Iraqi official said. Al Dhari, leader of the hardline Muslim Scholars Association (MSA), is being accused of inciting sectarianism and supporting and financing the Sunni-led insurgency. The case caused further resentment among Iraqi Sunnis who accused the Shiite-led Al Maliki government of bias.
Attacks against the US and Iraqi forces are also expected to "increase dramatically" if the newly-talked about alliance between the MSA and the movement of Shiite radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr movement is realised, the Iraqi aide told Gulf News on condition of anonymity. The 30-strong Sadr bloc has suspended its support of Al Maliki's ruling coalition and withdrawn six ministers from the cabinet in protest at his meeting with Bush. Al Sadr is "building an anti-US parliamentary alliance to demand the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq," one of his party's lawmakers told AFP on Thursday. But the Iraqi aide said talks have been "going on for a while" between Al Sadr and Al Dhari to "form a united front to force an American withdrawal and this is understandably very worrying for Al Maliki and Washington." It would be the first time the majority Shiites turn their guns off the Americans. "It is a scenario nobody really wants to think about," said the Iraqi aide.
Bush declared support for Al Maliki after a critical White House memo was leaked to the press in which national security adviser Stephen Hadley questioned Al Maliki's ability to control the turmoil and criticised him for not curbing Shiite militias. An Arab diplomat told Gulf News that the Hadley memo "reflects the opinion of many in the US administration and the Arab world as well as some of even Al Maliki's own allies".
He said the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution (SCIR), the largest Shiite party and key partner in the ruling coalition, has already begun promoting its second man, current vice president Adel Abdul Mahdi to replace Al Maliki. The US-educated Abdul Mahdi lost the post of prime minister to Al Maliki by one vote in an internal coalition voting last May. He has been touring the region lately to win Arab support. The diplomat revealed that Abdul Mahdi also visited Washington last week to confer with US leaders on the future of American forces in his country.
"The Americans told him they would not mind him replacing Al Maliki as long as he gets the approval of the Sunnis," the diplomat said. The SCIRI leader and Iraq's current strongman Abdul Aziz Al Hakim is currently in Jordan and on Wednesday met King Abdullah II. But the real aim of the visit, according to the diplomat, is to meet the MSA leader Al Dhari. "Al Hakim hopes to sell his man to the Sunnis and the Jordanians in return for more Sunni political role in running Iraq," the diplomat said. The move is also meant to abort the "worst case scenario: Al Dhari-Al Sadr alliance".
"The Americans told him they would not mind him replacing Al Maliki as long as he gets the approval of the Sunnis," the diplomat said. The SCIRI leader and Iraq's current strongman Abdul Aziz Al Hakim is currently in Jordan and on Wednesday met King Abdullah II. But the real aim of the visit, according to the diplomat, is to meet the MSA leader Al Dhari. "Al Hakim hopes to sell his man to the Sunnis and the Jordanians in return for more Sunni political role in running Iraq," the diplomat said. The move is also meant to abort the "worst case scenario: Al Dhari-Al Sadr alliance".
