Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Iraqi leaders divided on U.S. plans for Iraq
Politics, Security
Iraqi leaders are no less divided than America's when it comes to the way forward in Iraq, with sharp disagreements emerging on key issues, especially the idea of "surging" or increasing U.S. troops in Baghdad in the short term. The discord is likely to complicate U.S. efforts to develop a new approach to an increasingly unpopular war. President Bush has promised to announce his plans next month after the bipartisan Iraq Study Group recommended changes to reverse the "slide toward chaos," and after Bush also got separate recommendations from military officials and other advisers.
It is unclear what Bush will decide. But key Iraqi figures have spoken out against several recommendations either floated by Washington military and political officials or contained in the study group report. The biggest fight could be over an idea that seems to be gaining currency in the United States: Increasing the number of American troops in Baghdad, at least in the short term, in a major bid to suppress sectarian militias. U.S. officials consider the militias a greater threat to Iraq's fragile government than the Sunni Arab insurgents.
That idea has the support of the Sunni Arab vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, who met Bush at the White House last week. Al-Hashemi heads the biggest Sunni Arab political party and has spoken out often about the threat posed by Shiite militias, some of which have links to Shiite political movements. But Shiite leaders, who dominate Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, want to see a smaller American military footprint in the capital. They want a bigger role for Iraq's army and police, whose ranks are majority Shiite.
During his meeting with Bush last month in Jordan, al-Maliki told reporters that he and the president agreed on the need to accelerate the transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis. "And be assured that the Iraqi forces and the security forces have reached a good level of competency and efficiency to protect Iraq as a country and to protect its people," al-Maliki said. Indeed, Iraq's Shiite national security adviser, Mouwafak al-Rubaie, said the government has drafted a plan for moving most American troops out of central Baghdad to bases outside the city, where they would be available to back up Iraqi soldiers and police if needed.
An aide to al-Maliki, speaking on condition of anonymity, said 10 Iraqi divisions are prepared to take over from the Americans across Iraq by March 2007, under the supervision of U.S.-led forces. But many analysts question whether Iraqi forces are up to the task. Divisions over the "surge" idea within Iraq could greatly complicate any U.S. effort to implement it, worsening Sunni-Shiite tensions both within the government and on the street. U.S. officials would like to see al-Sadr's influence curtailed. But al-Maliki has opposed using force to destroy the Mahdi Army in its stronghold of Sadr City. Even Sunni leader al-Hashemi sees risk in moving too quickly against al-Sadr, who enjoys vast influence among poor Shiites.
It is unclear what Bush will decide. But key Iraqi figures have spoken out against several recommendations either floated by Washington military and political officials or contained in the study group report. The biggest fight could be over an idea that seems to be gaining currency in the United States: Increasing the number of American troops in Baghdad, at least in the short term, in a major bid to suppress sectarian militias. U.S. officials consider the militias a greater threat to Iraq's fragile government than the Sunni Arab insurgents.
That idea has the support of the Sunni Arab vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, who met Bush at the White House last week. Al-Hashemi heads the biggest Sunni Arab political party and has spoken out often about the threat posed by Shiite militias, some of which have links to Shiite political movements. But Shiite leaders, who dominate Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, want to see a smaller American military footprint in the capital. They want a bigger role for Iraq's army and police, whose ranks are majority Shiite.
During his meeting with Bush last month in Jordan, al-Maliki told reporters that he and the president agreed on the need to accelerate the transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis. "And be assured that the Iraqi forces and the security forces have reached a good level of competency and efficiency to protect Iraq as a country and to protect its people," al-Maliki said. Indeed, Iraq's Shiite national security adviser, Mouwafak al-Rubaie, said the government has drafted a plan for moving most American troops out of central Baghdad to bases outside the city, where they would be available to back up Iraqi soldiers and police if needed.
An aide to al-Maliki, speaking on condition of anonymity, said 10 Iraqi divisions are prepared to take over from the Americans across Iraq by March 2007, under the supervision of U.S.-led forces. But many analysts question whether Iraqi forces are up to the task. Divisions over the "surge" idea within Iraq could greatly complicate any U.S. effort to implement it, worsening Sunni-Shiite tensions both within the government and on the street. U.S. officials would like to see al-Sadr's influence curtailed. But al-Maliki has opposed using force to destroy the Mahdi Army in its stronghold of Sadr City. Even Sunni leader al-Hashemi sees risk in moving too quickly against al-Sadr, who enjoys vast influence among poor Shiites.
The idea of boosting American advisers does not sit well with President Jalal Talabani, a major Kurdish figure with close ties to the Iraqi army command. He told reporters this month such an increase in American advisers would violate Iraqi sovereignty and reduce the government's control over its own forces.
