Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Al-Maliki likley to hand Kirkuk to Kurds as they threaten to bring down government
Security, Politics
(AP) - Shiite lawmakers said Tuesday the government decision that likely will hand the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to Kurdish control was forced on Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki when Kurds threatened to walk out of his ruling coalition and bring down the government. The threat and al-Maliki's capitulation dramatically outlined the prime minister's tenuous hold on power and further emphasized the possibility, some say the likelihood, that Iraq could break into Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni regions with little or no central government control.
Consequences: A government collapse likely would have brought chaos to the 7-week-old Baghdad security operation with al-Maliki a lame-duck premier and commander in chief of Iraqi forces.
Pressure: "The Kurdish coalition exerted enormous pressure on us. One of them was a threat by Kurdish lawmakers to boycott parliament and by ministers to quit the government," said Haidar al-Abbadi, a member of al-Maliki's Dawa party. He described the Kurdish pressures as "blackmail."
At issue: Article 140 of Iraq's constitution calls for a referendum in Kirkuk on the city's status by year's end.
Relocation: The government agreed Thursday, presumably on al-Maliki's orders and after the Kurdish threat, to a plan to resettle to their home regions Arabs who had been moved into Kirkuk after Saddam Hussein's Baath party came to power in 1968.
Crisis averted: While the decision avoided what Shiite lawmaker Sami al-Askari said would have been "a major political crisis," he said the plan would "cost the government about $4 billion and that is a huge number."
Opposed: Shiite and Sunni lawmakers have declared their opposition to the plan, although they have no say in the matter short of calling for a vote of confidence and bringing down the government.
Not settled: Justice Minister Hashim al-Shibli said the Sunnis had opposed the measure because the constitution was still under review with Article 140 on Kirkuk likely to be one of the key clauses debated.
Oil: Much of Iraq's vast oil wealth lies under the ground in the Kirkuk region and in the Shiite-controlled south.
Politics: While the Kurds refer to Kirkuk as the "Kurdish Jerusalem," control of the oil resources and the city's likely attachment to the Kurdish semiautonomous region just to the north was believed the driving motivation for the threat to bring down the government.
'Arabized': Kirkuk, according to the last census before the Baathists took power, had a majority Kurdish population. Tens of thousands of Kurds and non-Arabs fled Kirkuk in the 1980s and 1990s when Saddam's government implemented its "Arabization" policy. Kurds and non-Arabs were replaced by pro-government Arabs from the mainly Shiite south. Saddam accused the Kurds of siding with Iran in the 1980-1988 war with Tehran.
Makeup: The ancient city has a large minority of ethnic Turks as well as Christians, Shiite and Sunni Arabs, Armenians and Assyrians.
COMMENT: If Kirkuk does become annexed by Kurdistan, violence in the town is likely to escalate between the minorities and against the Kurds. Unconfirmed reports state that Peshmerga militias are attacking the minorities and in retaliation the Turkomen have started forming their own militia. The minorities see Kirkuk as much their home as the Kurds do and do not want to become part of Kurdistan. Many of them have stated they will fight against such a decision. COMMENT ENDS.
Labels: Article 140, Kirkuk, Kurdistan
