Tuesday, April 10, 2007
CFR - Al Qaeda in Iraq is growing in strength
Security, Insurgency
(Council on Foreign Relations) - As al-Qaeda grows more diffuse, its franchise operations in places like Iraq appear to be gaining in strength and numbers. Across the country, suicide attacks against civilians are up in recent months, according to a March study by the Gulf Research Center, a Middle East policy institute. The latest attacks, many of which were carried out by al-Qaeda’s foreign fighters, have been timed to undermine the U.S.-led surge of additional forces into central Iraq.
(Council on Foreign Relations) - As al-Qaeda grows more diffuse, its franchise operations in places like Iraq appear to be gaining in strength and numbers. Across the country, suicide attacks against civilians are up in recent months, according to a March study by the Gulf Research Center, a Middle East policy institute. The latest attacks, many of which were carried out by al-Qaeda’s foreign fighters, have been timed to undermine the U.S.-led surge of additional forces into central Iraq.
The organization is also increasingly carrying out attacks using multiple bombs, the report finds. Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s ranks may have swelled to as many as 60,000 fighters, according to a January 2007 Center for Strategic and International Studies report. Frustratingly for U.S.-led stabilization efforts, al-Qaeda in Iraq appears to be both more fragmented and more effective, as this new Backgrounder points out. Another disturbing trend: the growing use of chlorine-laden bombs (Counterterrorismblog.org). As Army Major General Michael D. Barbero points out, these are the first poison gas attacks (U.S. Army News) on the Iraqi people since Saddam Hussein.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces opponents other than just U.S.-led forces. Zeyad Kasim, a U.S.-based Iraqi blogger, writes that a handful of local armed Sunni groups in Iraq may be severing their ties with al-Qaeda in Iraq, as Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi reportedly holds secret talks with insurgency leaders. There are also reports of locals and tribal leaders of Anbar Province feuding with foreign members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, as Sunni-versus-Sunni violence (MEMRI) continues to escalate.
Of course, rumors of al-Qaeda’s demise have been grossly exaggerated before. Indeed, its tensions with Sunni groups are nothing new and stretch back to December 2005, when al-Qaeda leaders threatened Sunnis against voting in parliamentary elections. Then again, after last summer’s death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, reports surfaced of the organization’s eventual downfall, as this Backgrounder notes. Zarqawi’s successor, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, has kept a lower profile. Yet all the while he has proven effective at encouraging not just sectarian violence, but also Sunni-versus-Sunni violence. “Al-Qaeda is attempting to destroy any resistance in the Sunni community to the Islamic State of Iraq,” writes Bill Roggio in the Weekly Standard.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces opponents other than just U.S.-led forces. Zeyad Kasim, a U.S.-based Iraqi blogger, writes that a handful of local armed Sunni groups in Iraq may be severing their ties with al-Qaeda in Iraq, as Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi reportedly holds secret talks with insurgency leaders. There are also reports of locals and tribal leaders of Anbar Province feuding with foreign members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, as Sunni-versus-Sunni violence (MEMRI) continues to escalate.
Of course, rumors of al-Qaeda’s demise have been grossly exaggerated before. Indeed, its tensions with Sunni groups are nothing new and stretch back to December 2005, when al-Qaeda leaders threatened Sunnis against voting in parliamentary elections. Then again, after last summer’s death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, reports surfaced of the organization’s eventual downfall, as this Backgrounder notes. Zarqawi’s successor, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, has kept a lower profile. Yet all the while he has proven effective at encouraging not just sectarian violence, but also Sunni-versus-Sunni violence. “Al-Qaeda is attempting to destroy any resistance in the Sunni community to the Islamic State of Iraq,” writes Bill Roggio in the Weekly Standard.
Labels: Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, Al Qaeda, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Gulf Research Center, Islamic State of Iraq, multiple bombs, suicide attacks, Tariq al-Hashimi
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Suicide attacks up since late 2006
Security
(AP) - Suicide bombings against civilians in Iraq have increased dramatically since the start of the year and are deadlier than ever, a Middle East think tank said in a report Monday. The study by the Gulf Research Center found 92 confirmed suicide attacks against civilian targets in February and March compared with 62 in the last two months of 2006.
"Since January they have sustained the highest level of suicide attacks since 2005, and higher casualty rates than at any period of the war," said Nicole Stracke, the report's editor. Stracke suggested that attackers were trying to discredit U.S. plans to quell the violence, particularly the decision announced in January to send thousands of more troops to Iraq.
Favored "soft" targets included cafes, weddings, funerals, markets and Shiite Muslim religious sites, all of which are far less protected than "hard" targets like U.S. military bases and Iraqi government offices. About 60 percent of Iraq's suicide attacks were carried out with explosives-rigged vehicles. Attacks using multiple bombs are also on the rise, Stracke said. Al-Qaida in Iraq and four other groups are behind most of the mayhem, according to the report.
The report also looked at the impact of suicide attacks worldwide. Use of the tactic is increasing fastest in Afghanistan, by more than 750 percent, jumping from 21 in 2005 to 180 in 2006, the report said. "The success of suicide bombing in Iraq is having an effect everywhere," said Mustafa Alani, a military analyst at the Gulf Research Center.
Suicide bombers are especially effective largely because they can switch targets or change routes, the report said. While bombs carried by individuals in vests or backpacks can kill victims as far as 30 yards away, a car bomb's kill zone stretches as far as 400 yards.
"Since January they have sustained the highest level of suicide attacks since 2005, and higher casualty rates than at any period of the war," said Nicole Stracke, the report's editor. Stracke suggested that attackers were trying to discredit U.S. plans to quell the violence, particularly the decision announced in January to send thousands of more troops to Iraq.
Favored "soft" targets included cafes, weddings, funerals, markets and Shiite Muslim religious sites, all of which are far less protected than "hard" targets like U.S. military bases and Iraqi government offices. About 60 percent of Iraq's suicide attacks were carried out with explosives-rigged vehicles. Attacks using multiple bombs are also on the rise, Stracke said. Al-Qaida in Iraq and four other groups are behind most of the mayhem, according to the report.
The report also looked at the impact of suicide attacks worldwide. Use of the tactic is increasing fastest in Afghanistan, by more than 750 percent, jumping from 21 in 2005 to 180 in 2006, the report said. "The success of suicide bombing in Iraq is having an effect everywhere," said Mustafa Alani, a military analyst at the Gulf Research Center.
Suicide bombers are especially effective largely because they can switch targets or change routes, the report said. While bombs carried by individuals in vests or backpacks can kill victims as far as 30 yards away, a car bomb's kill zone stretches as far as 400 yards.
Labels: Gulf Research Center, Nicole Stracke, suicide bombings
