Friday, September 07, 2007
A summary of recent reports on the Iraq war
Reports
(AP) - Findings and recommendations by recent studies on the Iraq war:
The Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, chaired by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones, released Sept. 6:
-Iraq's security forces will be unable to assume control of the country without U.S. help in the next 12 to 18 months.
-Reduction of U.S. forces and handing off combat mission to Iraqis is "possible and prudent," and changes could begin in early 2008.
-The national police force is rife with corruption and infiltrated by militia forces and should be disbanded.
-An adequate logistics system to support the Iraqi army is at least two years away.
-On the Web: http://www.csis.org
The Government Accountability Office progress report on Iraq, released Sept. 4:
-Of its 18 stated political and security goals, Iraq failed to meet 11 of them with the least progress made on the political front.
-Iraq fully met three of the 18 goals: establishing joint security stations in Baghdad, ensuring minority rights in the Iraqi legislature and creating support committees for the Baghdad security plan.
-Violence remains high, and it is unclear whether sectarian-fueled attacks has decreased because it is too difficult to prove intent.
-The number of Iraqi security forces capable of conducting independent operations has declined, and militias remain armed.
-On the Web: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d071195.pdf
White House progress report on Iraq, dated July 12:
-Of its 18 stated political and security goals, Iraq has made satisfactory progress on eight of them, including eliminating safe havens for outlaws and deploying three trained brigades to Baghdad.
-Judges Iraq has made unsatisfactory progress on nine benchmarks, including increasing the number of Iraqi security forces able to operate independently and passing major legislation believed critical to calming sectarian feuds.
-Judges that it is too early to judge Iraq's progress on two benchmarks: enacting amnesty legislation and establishing a program to disarm militias.
-On the Web: http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/iraq/2007/FinalBenchmarkReport.pdf
The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, released Aug. 23:
-Represented the most authoritative written judgments of all 16 spy agencies, with the Central Intelligence Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency as key contributors.
-Determined that the Iraqi government is strained by rampant violence, deep sectarian differences among its political parties and stymied leadership.
-Found Iraq's neighbors will continue to try to expand their leverage in the fractured state in anticipation that the U.S. will soon leave.
-Noted some security progress but elusive hopes for reconciliation among Iraq's feuding groups.
The Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, chaired by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones, released Sept. 6:
-Iraq's security forces will be unable to assume control of the country without U.S. help in the next 12 to 18 months.
-Reduction of U.S. forces and handing off combat mission to Iraqis is "possible and prudent," and changes could begin in early 2008.
-The national police force is rife with corruption and infiltrated by militia forces and should be disbanded.
-An adequate logistics system to support the Iraqi army is at least two years away.
-On the Web: http://www.csis.org
The Government Accountability Office progress report on Iraq, released Sept. 4:
-Of its 18 stated political and security goals, Iraq failed to meet 11 of them with the least progress made on the political front.
-Iraq fully met three of the 18 goals: establishing joint security stations in Baghdad, ensuring minority rights in the Iraqi legislature and creating support committees for the Baghdad security plan.
-Violence remains high, and it is unclear whether sectarian-fueled attacks has decreased because it is too difficult to prove intent.
-The number of Iraqi security forces capable of conducting independent operations has declined, and militias remain armed.
-On the Web: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d071195.pdf
White House progress report on Iraq, dated July 12:
-Of its 18 stated political and security goals, Iraq has made satisfactory progress on eight of them, including eliminating safe havens for outlaws and deploying three trained brigades to Baghdad.
-Judges Iraq has made unsatisfactory progress on nine benchmarks, including increasing the number of Iraqi security forces able to operate independently and passing major legislation believed critical to calming sectarian feuds.
-Judges that it is too early to judge Iraq's progress on two benchmarks: enacting amnesty legislation and establishing a program to disarm militias.
-On the Web: http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/iraq/2007/FinalBenchmarkReport.pdf
The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, released Aug. 23:
-Represented the most authoritative written judgments of all 16 spy agencies, with the Central Intelligence Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency as key contributors.
-Determined that the Iraqi government is strained by rampant violence, deep sectarian differences among its political parties and stymied leadership.
-Found Iraq's neighbors will continue to try to expand their leverage in the fractured state in anticipation that the U.S. will soon leave.
-Noted some security progress but elusive hopes for reconciliation among Iraq's feuding groups.
Labels: GAO, Gen. James Jones, Iraq, National Intelligence Estimate, reports, White House progress report
Friday, August 24, 2007
Excerpts from intel report on Iraq
Report
(AP) - Excerpts from the declassified summary of a National Intelligence Estimate released Thursday on the prospects for stability in Iraq. The report represents the collaborative judgment of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.
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"The level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI (al-Qaida in Iraq) retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions."
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"We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."
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"Sunni Arab resistance to AQI has expanded in the last six to nine months but has not yet translated into broad Sunni Arab support for the Iraqi Government or widespread willingness to work with the Shia. The Iraqi Government's Shia leaders fear these groups will ultimately side with armed opponents of the government, but the Iraqi Government has supported some initiatives to incorporate those rejecting AQI into Interior Ministry and Defense Ministry elements."
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"Iraqi Security Forces involved in combined operations with Coalition forces have performed adequately, and some units have demonstrated increasing professional competence. However, we judge that the ISF have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent of the Coalition on a sustained basis in multiple locations and that the ISF remain reliant on the Coalition for important aspects of logistics and combat support."
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"The IC (Intelligence Community) assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties."
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"Assistance to armed groups, especially from Iran, exacerbates the violence inside Iraq, and the reluctance of the Sunni states that are generally supportive of US regional goals to offer support to the Iraqi Government probably bolsters Iraqi Sunni Arabs' rejection of the government's legitimacy."
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"Recent security improvements in Iraq, including success against AQI, have depended significantly on the close synchronization of conventional counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. A change of mission that interrupts that synchronization would place security improvements at risk."
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"The level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI (al-Qaida in Iraq) retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions."
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"We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."
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"Sunni Arab resistance to AQI has expanded in the last six to nine months but has not yet translated into broad Sunni Arab support for the Iraqi Government or widespread willingness to work with the Shia. The Iraqi Government's Shia leaders fear these groups will ultimately side with armed opponents of the government, but the Iraqi Government has supported some initiatives to incorporate those rejecting AQI into Interior Ministry and Defense Ministry elements."
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"Iraqi Security Forces involved in combined operations with Coalition forces have performed adequately, and some units have demonstrated increasing professional competence. However, we judge that the ISF have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent of the Coalition on a sustained basis in multiple locations and that the ISF remain reliant on the Coalition for important aspects of logistics and combat support."
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"The IC (Intelligence Community) assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties."
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"Assistance to armed groups, especially from Iran, exacerbates the violence inside Iraq, and the reluctance of the Sunni states that are generally supportive of US regional goals to offer support to the Iraqi Government probably bolsters Iraqi Sunni Arabs' rejection of the government's legitimacy."
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"Recent security improvements in Iraq, including success against AQI, have depended significantly on the close synchronization of conventional counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations. A change of mission that interrupts that synchronization would place security improvements at risk."
Labels: Iraq, National Intelligence Estimate
