Thursday, May 17, 2007
UK think tank report - Iraq almost 'failed state'
Politics, Security
(Royal Institute for International Affairs) - There is not 'one' civil war, nor 'one' insurgency, but several civil wars and insurgencies between different communities in today's Iraq. Within this warring society, the Iraqi government is only one among many 'state-like' actors, and is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic, and political life. It is now possible to argue that Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation. These are some of the key findings of Accepting Realities in Iraq a new Briefing Paper written by Dr Gareth Stansfield and published today by Chatham House.
The paper also assesses Al-Qaeda activity within Iraq, especially in the major cities in the centre and north of the country. Dr Stansfield argues that, although Al-Qaeda is challenged by local groups, there is momentum behind its activity. Iraq's neighbors too have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all have different reasons for seeing the instability in Iraq continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments.
Dr Stansfield argues that with the myriad conflicts in Iraq following societal, religious and political divides and often involving state actors, the multinational forces are finding it exceptionally difficult to promote security normalization. The recent US 'surge' in Baghdad looks likely to have simply pushed insurgent activity to neighboring cities and cannot deliver the required political accommodation. A political solution will require Sunni Arab representatives’ participation in government, the recognition of Moqtada al-Sadr as a legitimate political partner, and a positive response to Kurdish concerns.
Further, it would be a mistake to believe that the political forces in Iraq are weak and can be reorganized by the US or the international community, there must be ‘buy-in’ from the key Iraqi political actors. Dr Stansfield says: ‘The coming year will be pivotal for Iraq. The internecine fighting and continual struggle for power threatens the nation’s very existence in its current form. An acceptance of the realities on the ground in Iraq and a fundamental rethinking of strategy by coalition powers are vital if there is to be any chance of future political stability in the country.’
Labels: Al Qaeda, Chatham House, civil war, Dr Gareth Stansfield, Iraq violence, politics
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Bombers kill 18 children as U.S. spy chief admits to civil war in Iraq
Security
(AFP) Bombers slaughtered 18 Iraqi children playing football on Tuesday as a relentless bombing spree snuffed out dozens more lives and a US spy chief acknowledged that the crisis amounts to "civil war". The children, aged between 10 and 15, died when a car parked next to a football pitch in the western Iraqi city of Ramadi exploded while they were playing, an Iraqi defence official told AFP. Around 20 more children were wounded in the latest attack in the restive western city, a hotbed of the anti-US insurgency which is fast also becoming a battlefront between rival Sunni factions, the official said.
In another bloody bomb attack, a suicide bomber rammed a truck into the Sheikh Fathi police station in the main northern city of Mosul and detonated explosives, killing at least six policemen, police said. A spate of bomb and mortar attacks in and around Baghdad killed 16 more people, including two civilians who died when a hidden bomb ripped through a budget restaurant frequented by Shiite labourers.
In Washington, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell told senators that the crisis was "moving in a negative direction" and that "the term 'civil war' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions gain real traction during the 12-18 month time frame ... we assess that the security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter half of 2006," he said.
More arrests followed on Tuesday in a separate part of the security plan when Iraqi army special forces and US advisers swooped on suspected Shiite militia hideouts in the east Baghdad suburb of Sadr City.
In another bloody bomb attack, a suicide bomber rammed a truck into the Sheikh Fathi police station in the main northern city of Mosul and detonated explosives, killing at least six policemen, police said. A spate of bomb and mortar attacks in and around Baghdad killed 16 more people, including two civilians who died when a hidden bomb ripped through a budget restaurant frequented by Shiite labourers.
In Washington, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell told senators that the crisis was "moving in a negative direction" and that "the term 'civil war' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions gain real traction during the 12-18 month time frame ... we assess that the security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter half of 2006," he said.
More arrests followed on Tuesday in a separate part of the security plan when Iraqi army special forces and US advisers swooped on suspected Shiite militia hideouts in the east Baghdad suburb of Sadr City.
Labels: civil war, Michael McConnell, Ramadi
