Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Sadrists reject SIIC suggestion of soft partition
Politics
(Al Jazeera) - The Muqtada al-Sadr bloc has rejected a suggestion made by another Iraqi Shia politician that the country should be split into regions based on sect and ethnicity. Ammar Hakim, son of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), said that dividing the country is "an Iraqi interest, wish and decision". Responding to his comments, Sadr's spokesman in Najaf said on Sunday that his group’s opposition to federalism "is firm and has not been changed".
Sheikh Saleh al-Obeidi, Sadr's spokesman, said: "After the US Congress voted to divide Iraq, it is clear that insisting on applying federalism in the current tragic Iraqi situation is a flirtation with the [non-binding] US Congress resolution [calling for a transfer of power to three self-governing regions - or Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds]. "The SIIC is one of the largest parties in the Iraqi parliament and a key supporter of Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister.
On October 6, Sadr and al-Hakim agreed their respective militias stop attacking each other. Meanwhile, political differences still remain and al-Hakim has argued in the past for uniting the nine Shia-majority provinces in southern Iraq. The US Congress resolution, sponsored by Senator Joseph Biden, was dismissed by Maliki, who called it an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty even though it was backed by the government in the northern Kurdish region.
Sheikh Saleh al-Obeidi, Sadr's spokesman, said: "After the US Congress voted to divide Iraq, it is clear that insisting on applying federalism in the current tragic Iraqi situation is a flirtation with the [non-binding] US Congress resolution [calling for a transfer of power to three self-governing regions - or Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds]. "The SIIC is one of the largest parties in the Iraqi parliament and a key supporter of Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister.
On October 6, Sadr and al-Hakim agreed their respective militias stop attacking each other. Meanwhile, political differences still remain and al-Hakim has argued in the past for uniting the nine Shia-majority provinces in southern Iraq. The US Congress resolution, sponsored by Senator Joseph Biden, was dismissed by Maliki, who called it an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty even though it was backed by the government in the northern Kurdish region.
However, the principle of federalism is included in the Iraqi constitution. But Sunni Arabs, who form an estimated 20 per cent of the population and are largely located in central, resource-poor parts of the country, are also against federalism, fearing it would deprive them of oil wealth.
Labels: Ammar al-Hakim, federalism, Moqtada Al-Sadr, partition, Sheikh Saleh al-Obeidi, SIIC
Friday, October 05, 2007
Kuwait will not accept partition of Iraq
Region
(Reuters) - Kuwait will not accept any plan to divide Iraq into federal regions and wants the United States to remain there until the country is stable, the Kuwaiti Emir said in remarks aired yesterday. "We will not accept the partition of Iraq, we consider this to be dangerous to us. It will be dangerous for the whole region," Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah told Al Arabiya television, commenting on a US Senate resolution advocating the division of Iraq into federal regions. "We are against this division and I think that even the Iraqis will not accept this." The non-binding Senate amendment, which was passed last week, says the United States should actively support a political settlement among Iraqis based on a federal system of government.
The amendment has been widely interpreted as a proposal to divide Iraq along sectarian and ethnic lines into Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions. Shaikh Sabah also called on the United States to keep its troops in Iraq until stability is seen on the ground. "I say it frankly, I would like the United States to withdraw its troops from tomorrow, but do you think that if they pull out there will be stability in Iraq? I think not," he said.
"We will hold the United States responsible for the fighting in Iraq, therefore, I wish that they will not leave now before they maintain a strong army in Iraq that can protect Iraq and its people." Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Monday that the resolution was well-meaning but failed to recognise the ethnic complexity of Iraqi cities and regions. The Arab League criticised the resolution and described the idea as "hostile to Arab interests."
The amendment has been widely interpreted as a proposal to divide Iraq along sectarian and ethnic lines into Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions. Shaikh Sabah also called on the United States to keep its troops in Iraq until stability is seen on the ground. "I say it frankly, I would like the United States to withdraw its troops from tomorrow, but do you think that if they pull out there will be stability in Iraq? I think not," he said.
"We will hold the United States responsible for the fighting in Iraq, therefore, I wish that they will not leave now before they maintain a strong army in Iraq that can protect Iraq and its people." Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Monday that the resolution was well-meaning but failed to recognise the ethnic complexity of Iraqi cities and regions. The Arab League criticised the resolution and described the idea as "hostile to Arab interests."
Labels: federalism, Hoshiyar Zebari, Iraq, Kuwait, partition, Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah
Calls grow for partition of Iraq
Politics
(The Guardian) - After months of gruelling work, including major counter-insurgency operations in June, US commanders in Iraq have growing reason to believe the controversial "surge" policy is working. But as the military gets a grip, the effectiveness and cohesion of the civilian-led, Shia-dominated government in Baghdad slips by the day. That is renewing talk of partition.
US officials say the number of Iraqi civilians and American soldiers killed in September was lower than at any time since January 2006. The overall trend has been downwards for four months. Lieutenant-general Raymond Odierno, the US deputy commander, said this week that al-Qaida bases and safe havens had been reduced by 60-70% since the surge began. Other contributory factors include increased cooperation from Sunni Arab tribesmen across central Iraq. Up to 30,000 Sunnis have reportedly volunteered to help US and Iraqi-government forces secure their neighbourhoods.
After months of bitter US complaints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was aiding Shia militias and arming renegade Sunnis linked to al-Qaida, Tehran may be backing off. Gen Odierno said the supply of weapons from Iran grew dramatically from April to July, in support of a summer offensive by insurgents.
But after a deal made with Tehran last month by Iraq's Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the flow is slowing. Sadly for the overall US strategy, political progress is not keeping pace. Mr Maliki's coalition government looks weaker than ever, unable to command a working parliamentary majority, or to pass key reconciliation measures. Seventeen ministries are without a minister and much central government funding remains frozen in the ruins of a collapsed bureaucracy.
Sensing division among Shias and reduced commitment from the Kurds, Sunni Arab and secular parties are threatening a no-confidence vote. US congressional criticism is mounting too. "There was just no sense of urgency on the part of the prime minister to drive the overarching goal that will help cement and solidify Iraq as a united country," said Republican senator Olympia Snowe after visiting Baghdad.
US officials, including President Bush, are leaning hard on Mr Maliki. But ironically, their success in thwarting Democrat attempts to impose a withdrawal timetable, plus the surge's recent advances, may have eased the immediate pressure on him. And if Mr Maliki were to fall, neither Washington nor Iraq's squabbling factions would easily find a viable alternative.
The impotence of the Baghdad government, and the willingness of tribal chiefs and provincial and municipal-level leaders to take charge of their security, budgets and social programmes, is encouraging talk of partition - or at least devolution of power beyond that envisaged in Iraq's federal constitution.
Independence-minded Kurdistan, in northern Iraq, is already going its own way. The Kurdish regional government recently signed five unilateral oil exploration deals, to fury in both Baghdad and Washington.
In the south, Mr Maliki's key Shia backer, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, wants the nine majority-Shia southern provinces to join what could effectively become a state within a state. Its existential power struggle with Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, sworn opponent of Mr Maliki and the Americans, is increasingly distracting its attention from "national" priorities.
This has not gone unnoticed among US legislators and policymakers such as Democrat senator Joe Biden, who have long argued for Bosnia style, ethnically based partition. Mr Biden won Senate approval last week for a non-binding measure urging Iraq's division into Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions.
"Attempts to partition or divide Iraq by intimidation, force or other means would produce extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," the US government said. But many reply that, despite the surge's recent successes, extraordinary suffering is what Iraq has already got; and the illusion of central control cannot be sustained much longer.
US officials say the number of Iraqi civilians and American soldiers killed in September was lower than at any time since January 2006. The overall trend has been downwards for four months. Lieutenant-general Raymond Odierno, the US deputy commander, said this week that al-Qaida bases and safe havens had been reduced by 60-70% since the surge began. Other contributory factors include increased cooperation from Sunni Arab tribesmen across central Iraq. Up to 30,000 Sunnis have reportedly volunteered to help US and Iraqi-government forces secure their neighbourhoods.
After months of bitter US complaints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was aiding Shia militias and arming renegade Sunnis linked to al-Qaida, Tehran may be backing off. Gen Odierno said the supply of weapons from Iran grew dramatically from April to July, in support of a summer offensive by insurgents.
But after a deal made with Tehran last month by Iraq's Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the flow is slowing. Sadly for the overall US strategy, political progress is not keeping pace. Mr Maliki's coalition government looks weaker than ever, unable to command a working parliamentary majority, or to pass key reconciliation measures. Seventeen ministries are without a minister and much central government funding remains frozen in the ruins of a collapsed bureaucracy.
Sensing division among Shias and reduced commitment from the Kurds, Sunni Arab and secular parties are threatening a no-confidence vote. US congressional criticism is mounting too. "There was just no sense of urgency on the part of the prime minister to drive the overarching goal that will help cement and solidify Iraq as a united country," said Republican senator Olympia Snowe after visiting Baghdad.
US officials, including President Bush, are leaning hard on Mr Maliki. But ironically, their success in thwarting Democrat attempts to impose a withdrawal timetable, plus the surge's recent advances, may have eased the immediate pressure on him. And if Mr Maliki were to fall, neither Washington nor Iraq's squabbling factions would easily find a viable alternative.
The impotence of the Baghdad government, and the willingness of tribal chiefs and provincial and municipal-level leaders to take charge of their security, budgets and social programmes, is encouraging talk of partition - or at least devolution of power beyond that envisaged in Iraq's federal constitution.
Independence-minded Kurdistan, in northern Iraq, is already going its own way. The Kurdish regional government recently signed five unilateral oil exploration deals, to fury in both Baghdad and Washington.
In the south, Mr Maliki's key Shia backer, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, wants the nine majority-Shia southern provinces to join what could effectively become a state within a state. Its existential power struggle with Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, sworn opponent of Mr Maliki and the Americans, is increasingly distracting its attention from "national" priorities.
This has not gone unnoticed among US legislators and policymakers such as Democrat senator Joe Biden, who have long argued for Bosnia style, ethnically based partition. Mr Biden won Senate approval last week for a non-binding measure urging Iraq's division into Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions.
"Attempts to partition or divide Iraq by intimidation, force or other means would produce extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," the US government said. But many reply that, despite the surge's recent successes, extraordinary suffering is what Iraq has already got; and the illusion of central control cannot be sustained much longer.
Labels: Iraq, Kurdistan, Moqtada Al-Sadr, partition, SIIC, southern Iraq
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Scholars propose plan to divide Iraq into three main regions
(AP) -- With President Bush's war strategy clouded by limited results and mounting casualties, two scholars are proposing a partition plan that would divide Iraq into three main regions. The authors, Edward P. Joseph of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, are hoping to draw the attention of Bush administration policymakers. They are circulating their suggestions within the Bush administration.
Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, who is a Democratic presidential candidate and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sought for months to attract support for a partition plan he formulated with Leslie Gelb, former head of the private Council on Foreign Relations. It would establish a federal system of government in Iraq. The idea has gained some attention in Congress but has not been embraced by the Bush administration. "The time may be approaching when the only hope for a more stable Iraq is a soft partition of the country," the report by Joseph and O'Hanlon said.
Administration strategy is geared toward building up a strong central government. But U.S. public support is declining, and according to some observers, Iraq may be on the verge of civil war. A major assessment of policy is expected in September. In the meantime, there have been proposals for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, now numbering about 157,000. The Pentagon says more than 3,500 U.S. troops have died since the beginning of the war in March 2003 that toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Under the plan, Iraqis would divide the country into three main regions. Each would assume primary responsibility for its own security and governance, as Iraqi Kurds already have in Kurdistan. "Creating such a structure could prove to be difficult and risky," the report said. "However, when measured against the alternatives - continuing to police an ethnic-sectarian war, or withdrawing and allowing the conflict to escalate - the risks of soft partition appear more acceptable."
Joseph said in an interview Tuesday: "We have got to find a way through." He said the time had come to decide whether the strategy of promoting a strong central government in Baghdad made sense. "The vision we put forward is not a prescription for immediate withdrawal," Joseph said. "It does involve substantial commitments of U.S. troops." "However," he added, "we anticipate a substantial reduction in U.S. casualties."
The proposal would require the acquiescence of major political factions in Iraq. There would be substantial, voluntary movement in mixed, volatile areas. For instance, Saddam and his predecessors deliberately settled Arab Shiites and Sunnis in Kirkuk to disadvantage the Kurds, Joseph said. Arabs settled there have expressed willingness to move out if they are provided with housing and a livelihood elsewhere.
In Baghdad, rather than keeping vulnerable minorities in tense parts of the capital, Joseph said, "It might make sense to move them voluntarily to places where they would be safer." Among the Shiites, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Council has called for a Shiite region for years. But Muqtada al-Sadr and others in the Shiite leadership oppose it, as do the major Sunni politicians. The three main spheres proposed in the report would be Shiite, Sunni and Kurdistan. The Kurds already control Kurdistan.
Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, who is a Democratic presidential candidate and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sought for months to attract support for a partition plan he formulated with Leslie Gelb, former head of the private Council on Foreign Relations. It would establish a federal system of government in Iraq. The idea has gained some attention in Congress but has not been embraced by the Bush administration. "The time may be approaching when the only hope for a more stable Iraq is a soft partition of the country," the report by Joseph and O'Hanlon said.
Administration strategy is geared toward building up a strong central government. But U.S. public support is declining, and according to some observers, Iraq may be on the verge of civil war. A major assessment of policy is expected in September. In the meantime, there have been proposals for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, now numbering about 157,000. The Pentagon says more than 3,500 U.S. troops have died since the beginning of the war in March 2003 that toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Under the plan, Iraqis would divide the country into three main regions. Each would assume primary responsibility for its own security and governance, as Iraqi Kurds already have in Kurdistan. "Creating such a structure could prove to be difficult and risky," the report said. "However, when measured against the alternatives - continuing to police an ethnic-sectarian war, or withdrawing and allowing the conflict to escalate - the risks of soft partition appear more acceptable."
Joseph said in an interview Tuesday: "We have got to find a way through." He said the time had come to decide whether the strategy of promoting a strong central government in Baghdad made sense. "The vision we put forward is not a prescription for immediate withdrawal," Joseph said. "It does involve substantial commitments of U.S. troops." "However," he added, "we anticipate a substantial reduction in U.S. casualties."
The proposal would require the acquiescence of major political factions in Iraq. There would be substantial, voluntary movement in mixed, volatile areas. For instance, Saddam and his predecessors deliberately settled Arab Shiites and Sunnis in Kirkuk to disadvantage the Kurds, Joseph said. Arabs settled there have expressed willingness to move out if they are provided with housing and a livelihood elsewhere.
In Baghdad, rather than keeping vulnerable minorities in tense parts of the capital, Joseph said, "It might make sense to move them voluntarily to places where they would be safer." Among the Shiites, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Council has called for a Shiite region for years. But Muqtada al-Sadr and others in the Shiite leadership oppose it, as do the major Sunni politicians. The three main spheres proposed in the report would be Shiite, Sunni and Kurdistan. The Kurds already control Kurdistan.
Labels: Brookings Institution, Edward P. Joseph, Iraq, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Michael O'Hanlon, partition
